At current growth rates of industrial production, it will be possible to reach the level of 2013 only in 2030, and then, provided that the current favorable conditions for Ukraine on foreign markets are maintained. At the same time, if the current growth dynamics is observed, the processing industry will recover to the level of 2013 approximately in 2022, while the fuel and energy complex will not be recovered until 2028, and the mining industry will not be recovered until 2036.
Industrial production declined in 10 out 25 regions in the country. More or less noteworthy double-digit growth was recorded only in the Ivano-Frankivsk (+ 13.1%) and Sumy (+ 13.0%) regions – not the most industrialized regions of the country. The largest drop in industrial production is expected to be achieved in the Luhansk region – minus 17% compared with January-September 2017. The deindustrialization of this region has become simply threatening – for the three quarters of 2018, the region produced industrial products in a volume that is only 13.1% of the level of the same period in 2011. The highest rates of decline in industrial output were also in the Rivne (-10.3%), Odesa (-7.8%), Khmelnitsky (-4.5%) regions, Kyiv (-3%).
The volume of production was reduced by the branch of electrical engineering (-9.7%), the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products (-7.5%), light (-3%), food (-1.7%), rubber and plastics (-1.6%), pharmaceutical (-1.4%) industry. Despite the growth, it was not yet possible to even closely compensate for last year’s falls in the coal and coke industry. The first one gave an increase of only 2.6% after a fall -16.1% a year earlier. The situation is similar in coke chemistry – an increase of 3.7% after last year’s drop of 16.9%.
Ukraine has gradually come to terms with the slow extinction of the aviation industry, which in recent years has been steadily producing at three of its plants one, maximum two aircrafts, and over the past four years – without a single serial order.
Shipbuilding is in a coma. In fact and the results of the activity – the industry can already be renamed into the ship repair and ship paint. The last passenger river vessel was lowered from the stocks in the early 90s of the last century. Tugs and barges for the “Nibulon”, a small landing craft for the Navy, one chemical tanker under construction in Kherson and another one in Mykolayiv – this is the current limit of the dreams of domestic shipbuilding, in recent years, the USSR annually launched 50 medium and large civilian ships warships (including the legendary aircraft carriers).
The automotive industry is approximately at the same level, in which one out of seven factories works more or less, sometimes the rest are getting closer and closer to bankruptcy every month. A similar situation is in the rocket and space industry, where only more than fifty enterprises are profitable, while the flagships of the industry, the plants Yuzhmash and Arsenal, are at a loss.
The work of the agricultural industry was accompanied by a number of negative trends. Firstly, this is a decrease in yield compared to the last year. For individual crops (for example, for barley, oats, leguminous plants, spring rape) – it is 10 or more percent lower than last year. Secondly, the cultivated areas for the harvest-2018 turned out to be almost the same as a year earlier, and for individual crops – even smaller than in 2017. Thirdly, against this background there was recorded a reduction in exports of domestic products. Traditionally, everything is difficult in the livestock sub-sector. It recorded a decrease in production by 0.1%.
The current authorities do not have an understanding of what should be done to restart the economy: for four years, the program of development and support of the industry has not been adopted, incentives to increase exports have not been earned, support for agricultural producers has been cut down, the transport infrastructure continues to degrade, etc. The result of this unprofessional policy was a record increase in unemployment, wage arrears and a massive departure of able-bodied Ukrainians abroad.
More detailed information about the results of the work of the Ukrainian economy for the first 9 months of 2018 is available here.
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